Smart Power Blog

Great question. I will spare you a long discussion. The key is to change the time-table and the physical scope of the problem. Military is good for short, geographically small power exertions (see my next post). The conflict is getting out of control because it has gone on too long and is expanding beyond a point where our military can be effective. Too many people are fighting in too many places and it is growing.

The answer is not for us to complain about the fact that the military could have been used effectively before things were to the point where they are now, in other words, to keep using the military in the hopes that the conflict returns to something smaller and more focused where the military will be useful. The answer is for us to increase the time-scale and scope of our solution. Specifically (and very briefly), we do a few things:

1a. Announce to the Iraqis that we are not staying permanently. Make it public.
1b. Get very serious, right away, about alternative energy. Make some immediate, important changes not just to legislation but to infrastructure.
2. Call a summit or otherwise very demonstrably communicate with the other countries in the region.

The message: look, you know and we know that the only reason we are here is because of the oil. And you know and we know that, with the way your countries have developed so far, without oil you are Africa. Well, this is not going well for us -- we can't fix your problems. Our country is going to get off of oil -- we'll mostly off in 10 years. While we're doing that, it appears you have a choice:
a. Stabilize your own region with our help and get your countries into shape to properly enter the global economy w/o oil as s crutch.
b. Hang out, watch America squirm to your public's delight, then slowly descend to Africa status where, even when you beg for outside help to stablize and modernize no one listens.

3. Engage with Iran, Egypt, Iraq and Saudi over the next few years to solve this collective problem. They balk, we leave.

CRITICAL: We get set to take whatever economic hit we need to to unwind this garbage. We subsidize fuel and build infrastructure ASAP. We expect that they will try to hurt us this way, and we use our other sources of power to reduce the pain of this threat so it is not so credible.